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Ten Pao Group Holdings · 1979.HK · HKEX

Hong-Kong-listed Chinese contract manufacturer of power adapters and chargers — for power tools, IoT devices, EV chargers, and 3.5–10kW AI server power supplies — earning its margin on OEM design wins for Bosch, TTI, and unnamed Fortune-500 server builders.

HK$2.91
Price (21 May 2026)
HK$3.0B
Market cap
HK$5.6B
Revenue FY2025
6
Production sites across 5 countries
Listed Dec 2015; traded between HK$0.50 and HK$1.50 for most of 2018–2023; troughed at HK$0.94 in Jan 2024, then 3× to a HK$3.00 ATH on the 14 May 2026 A-share spin-off filing.
2 · The spin-off catalyst

HKEX cleared a Huizhou A-share spin-off — at 20× P/E the subsidiary alone is worth more than the entire group today.

  • The filing. The company filed the Practice Note 15 application with HKEX on 27 Apr 2026 and disclosed on 14 May 2026 that HKEX had confirmed it may proceed; the CSRC A-share application is the next gate, not yet filed. The stock ripped +21.0% on 25.3M shares — one of the two largest single-day moves since IPO (a similar +21.4% printed on 11 Dec 2020).
  • The arithmetic. Huizhou Electronic carries roughly 58% of group segment gross profit. At 20× FY25 share earnings of HK$220M it values at HK$4.4B — already HK$1.4B above the entire group market cap of HK$3.0B. A-share charger peers trade 25–45× P/E.
  • What's unsettled. The CSRC prospectus has not yet disclosed how much economic interest the listed parent retains, the sponsor's indicative pricing range, or whether related-party flows carve into SpinCo. Until those print, the +21% spike priced optionality, not the SOTP.
One disclosure resolves an 11-year holding-company discount or extends it indefinitely. The CSRC processing clock is six to eighteen months.
3 · Mix migration

The same Dongguan factory earns 24¢ on a smart industrial charger and 13¢ on a router adapter — and the revenue mix is sliding the right way.

HK$2.16B
Smart-chargers FY25 38.8% of revenue
24.1%
Segment gross margin vs 13.3% telecom
+2pp
Smart-charger share 37.3% → 38.8% YoY
HK$520M
Smart-charger gross profit over half of group GP

Smart chargers, lighting and media — 54.7% of FY25 revenue — print 19–25% segment gross margins and already throw off roughly 60% of group gross profit. The H2-2024 launch of 3,500–10,000W AI/HPC server PSUs aims the next leg into a wattage band Delta Electronics has not aggressively contested. The variable the next half-year decides: smart-charger segment GM gave back 260bps last year (26.7% → 24.1%) and an AI customer name still has not been disclosed 18 months after the product launch.

4 · Why the multiple is the asymmetry

7.9× earnings on 17.5% ROE — the cheapest, third-most-profitable name in a peer set that trades 18× to 87×.

  • Peer math. ROE 17.5% (#2 of 7 Asian PSU peers, narrowly ahead of Lite-On 17.3%), operating margin 7.6% (#3, behind Delta 17.8% and Lite-On 9.4%). Multiple is 7.9× trailing P/E and 1.4× book. The next-cheapest peer is Chicony Power at 18.9× — running 50% larger revenue at worse margins and lower ROE.
  • Cycle-tested. Nine-year average ROE of 22.0%. The FY18 copper shock and FY22 smartphone cliff both compressed margins but never broke ROE for two consecutive years; revenue compounded ~11% per year across both troughs.
  • Owner skin. Founder Hung owns 66.78% via a BVI company and a family trust and has not sold a share since the 2015 IPO. Public float just clears the 25% regulatory minimum (≈25.5% net of Fidelity's 7.76% block) — small enough to keep sell-side coverage at zero.
The 7.9× vs ~25× peer median is the asymmetry — the size of any rerate depends on what the FY26 H1 segment GM and the CSRC pricing range disclose.
5 · What the bear sees

A founder who sits on his own pay committee, buys copper from his wife, and parked equity inside the subsidiary two years before the spin.

  • Related-party copper. The chairman's spouse owns Golden Ocean Copper; in FY25 it supplied HK$94.8M of copper wire to the group. The annual cap was lifted from HK$50M to HK$140M in two years — 2.8× on a commodity input, with no observable competitive bid.
  • Pre-spin equity scheme. A Ten Pao Electronic (Huizhou) Share Award Scheme adopted Feb 2024 already directed HK$25.4M of equity value to subsidiary employees — before the May 2026 spin filing. Outside parent shareholders do not participate in that pool.
  • Broken cash conversion. FY25 free cash flow collapsed to HK$19M (5% of net income) against a HK$126M dividend funded out of the cash pile. 71% of headline cash (HK$702M of HK$985M) is restricted against bank acceptance bills.
The spin is the mechanism — the open question is who keeps the economics: the listed parent at 25× P/E, or the subsidiary scheme and family layer above it.
6 · Bull & Bear

Lean watchlist — the single CSRC disclosure that decides this thesis does not yet exist in any public document.

  • For. Quality-to-price gap is the widest in the listed Asian power-supply set: 17.5% ROE at 7.9× P/E against a peer median of 25×. Closing even part of that gap is what the rerate case rests on, before SOTP contributes.
  • For. The spin clock is real. HKEX has cleared the PN15 application, CSRC filing is the next gate, and 58% of segment gross profit is what's being repriced. A conservative 20× on Huizhou implies HK$4.4B for the subsidiary versus HK$3.0B for the whole group today.
  • Against. FY25 FCF of HK$19M doesn't cover the HK$126M dividend. The chairman's family supplier cap just tripled to HK$140M. The Huizhou share-award scheme pre-dated the spin filing by 27 months.
  • Against. Smart-charger segment margin compressed 260bps and the AI/HPC pivot still has no named customer 18 months after launch. Phihong's collapse from 28% gross margin to operating losses started exactly here.
My view — flip to long when the CSRC prospectus shows ≥85% economic interest retained and FY26 H1 smart-charger gross margin holds ≥25%. Either condition alone is not enough.

Watchlist to re-rate: CSRC prospectus terms (retained interest %, sponsor pricing range, related-party carve-outs); FY26 H1 smart-charger segment gross margin in the ~22 Aug 2026 interim; whether the 10% buyback mandate approved at the 12 Jun 2026 AGM actually gets used at HK$2.50–3.00.